Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.649835 0.750008 0.857283 0.980344 1.117236 1.264460 1.434384
2025-02-16 0.459990 0.586265 0.732053 0.911365 1.124435 1.367963 1.665690
2025-02-23 0.319950 0.452252 0.617199 0.834523 1.109573 1.442188 1.870510
2025-03-02 0.217167 0.343225 0.513660 0.754512 1.078899 1.492970 2.052712
2025-03-09 0.158281 0.279722 0.457447 0.725768 1.108305 1.620690 2.343231
2025-03-16 0.113548 0.225935 0.404473 0.692461 1.126370 1.734703 2.626866
2025-03-23 0.088898 0.197764 0.384229 0.703201 1.207296 1.941792 3.054594
2025-03-30 0.062682 0.158991 0.338796 0.667053 1.213232 2.042086 3.340952
2025-04-06 0.045905 0.132716 0.308897 0.650745 1.246870 2.184977 3.699267
2025-04-13 0.032855 0.109371 0.278809 0.628456 1.267034 2.307826 4.035921
2025-04-20 0.025440 0.096369 0.266093 0.635407 1.336655 2.513207 4.512152
2025-04-27 0.019072 0.083168 0.249613 0.632025 1.387020 2.690509 4.955334
2025-05-04 0.013994 0.071378 0.234092 0.629727 1.442516 2.886659 5.452292
2025-05-11 0.010270 0.061699 0.221018 0.630411 1.503992 3.098572 5.990577
2025-05-18 0.006876 0.050456 0.200179 0.609752 1.521187 3.234448 6.411557
2025-05-25 0.004198 0.039316 0.175294 0.574105 1.503000 3.304697 6.725073
2025-06-01 0.002884 0.033503 0.164523 0.571020 1.552469 3.502987 7.273122
2025-06-08 0.001851 0.027696 0.151259 0.558487 1.579584 3.660740 7.758390
2025-06-15 0.001400 0.025461 0.150177 0.579181 1.683536 3.973741 8.540116
2025-06-22 0.000810 0.020353 0.135238 0.556854 1.685364 4.085883 8.960585
2025-06-29 0.000493 0.017025 0.125974 0.549185 1.720603 4.266674 9.517071
2025-07-06 0.000272 0.013840 0.115347 0.534519 1.736551 4.408467 10.006588
2025-07-13 0.000177 0.012337 0.112373 0.544292 1.814628 4.683574 10.761935